The course provides the basic concepts and tools for the analysis of the demographic structure of populations and their behaviours: social and demographic sources of data, measure of mortality, fertility, nuptiality, migration; population growth issues, population projection.
Concepts and measures will be verified using real data and examples obtained from the administrative and survey data sources.
The course concludes with some reflections on the history of the world's population.
Students can choose among the various books on Demography available, for example:
- S.H Preston, P. Heuveline, M. Guillot, (2001) Demography – Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, Backwell Publishing
- G. De Santis (2010) Demografia, Il Mulino, Bologna.
- M. Livi Bacci (1999) Introduzione alla demografia, Loescher Editore (available in the library)
- A. Santini - Appunti di Analisi Demografica (downloadable from Moodle)
Learning Objectives
To provide the student with the bases for understanding and measuring population processes, as well as the knowledge of the characteristics and evolution of demographic aggregates, in particular:
a) understand demographic dynamics (interplay of stock and flow data);
b) know where to retrieve demographic information
c) be capable of calculating autonomously the main demographic indicators, cross-sectionally and longitudinally, given the proper raw numbers
d) understand demographic problems; envisaging possible solutions.
Prerequisites
Preparatory teaching: Statistics I
Teaching Methods
Lectures, exercises
Further information
For additional material (e.g., ppt slide), exercises and a few examples of the examination test see the Moodle page of the course.
No differences, neither for the program or the exam, between attending and non attending students.
Type of Assessment
For update and further information, please check the Moodle page of the course.
The exam consists of both a written and an oral test (which have the same weight in the final evaluation). The written part (duration 1 h 30’) includes 5 exercises, each one with a score of 6. The oral part consists in the discussion of the written exam and of the part of the course related to the world population history.
Course program
Introduction: main concepts, purposes, and tools; time, age and events; generation, cohorts and contemporaries. Socio-demographic sources of data.
Dimension and structure of the population: stocks and flows, population equation, indices of structure, age pyramids, link between dynamic and structure. Growth population rate. Raw and specific rates, standardization.
Demographic flows: mortality (Lexis diagram, probability and rates, mortality table); nuptiality and divorce (definitions and measures); fertility (generic and specific rates, reproduction, substitution level); migration (sources and measures; cause and consequences of the migration process).
Demographic forecasts, simple and cohort component.
The development of human populations between growth and constraint. An overview of the world's population growth, with reference to the richest and poorest areas. The future of the population. Populations challenges.